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Post Hoc Predictions Monday, October 13, 2008

Posted by ThomDG in Psychics.
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Today as I was looking through my Inbox I saw my Google alert for Psychics and noticed one article in particular . Apparently a Psychic in England named Sally Morgan claimed to have predicted Princess Diana’s death. First of all, Princess Diana died in 1997, that is over 11 years ago. This fact alone completely invalidates the claim. Anyone can predict anything that already happened, and do it with a 100% success rate. If that wasn’t bad enough here is her “prediction” of the car crash: “I could see a car. Blackness seeming to crowd in on it. I wasn’t able to make out the car, just the darkness of its colour. And there was a body” “”My hands flew to my mouth. ‘Oh my God, Fiona,’ I repeated. ‘I can see them. They’re pulling a body out of a car.’ I saw the body of a woman on the ground. I knew it to be the queen.” First, last time I checked, Princess Diana wasn’t the queen. Secondly thats a very vague prediction. Lets say that she was doing a reading, she could say, I see a car, and I see Blackness crowding around it. THen follow that by asking if the person drives at night a lot, if they drive through tunnels, if they drive a black car, if they have had an accident, if a person they know has had an accident; either recently or in the past. This is how cold reading works, they through out a claim and use you to get it to fit that claim. Some people are better at it than others. Some people, like Sylvia Brown, fall flat on their face.

On a side note it feels great to be back. I should be posting more next week. I have fall break and I will have more time on my hands.

We’re still alive Thursday, October 2, 2008

Posted by ThomDG in Skepticism.
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I assure you that we are not dead. We are just both quite busy with school. I intend to post more over my fall and winter breaks. Thanks to everyone who has been checking out the site. Although it seems we often encounter people with different viewpoints then us, we still enjoy you visiting us. I am going to end this post with a question and my response, I’d love to hear some of yours too. What does being a skeptic mean to you?

To me it means that I require evidence to believe in something. I need this evidence to meet a certain standard. It has to be testable, it has to be empirical, and it has to hold up to the scientific method and peer review. I am not closed minded. I don’t hate mysteries. I love them. I love learning new things. I wish a lot of these things were true. I just don’t think they are. I’ll end with one of my favorite quotes by Carl Sagan, one that sums up my view of skepticism quite well. “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.”

Sky Mall Wackiness Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Posted by ThomDG in Alternative Medicine, Skepticism.
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I spent a good chunk of last weekend on airplanes going to see my girlfriend Ashley. As such I was able to enjoy the guilty pleasure that is Sky Mall. For those of you who don’t know Sky Mall is a catalog featuring many ridiculous items and some not as ridiculous stuff, its sort of like Sharper Image, which they carry. It has been around for as long as I can remember. According to Wikipedia it has been around since 1990. Now onto ridiculous crap.

First up we have what looks to be a diabetes tester. Actually its some kind of Acupuncture device. The article is very vague but the essential point is that it can be used to clear blocked qi passages. It isn’t clear exactly how it works which should set off some red flags for people. Also it doesn’t use traditional acupuncture points instead using only the hand. The basis for this product is a 5,000 year old mummy with tattoos of acupuncture points on it. What concerns me most is how little detail the give you about how the product works. Even if you enjoy Acupuncture I’d be wary of this, especially since it sends “light electrical pulses”. Accessories include: Instruction and testimonial video, Large and small Ear plug, Magnetic Wave Pointer, Guidebook with body chart, AC Adapter, Neck strap and a clip holder. All this can be yours for the low, low price of $180.

Next we  come across a knock-off of Kinoki foot pads, on sale for $15 for 10 and 30 for $40. The list of claims are: relieve pain; improve the immune system, circulation and sleep; reduce stress, soothe headaches, and relieve sore feet. About the only thing these can’t do is cure cancer, but thats just because it would be illegal for them to claim that.

Lastly we have the Q-Ray. Much like a zombie, this product has risen from the dead. In 2000-2001 the Mayo Clinic conducted a study on the effect of “ionized” bracelet. It showed definitively that thee was no statistical benefit in using an ionized bracelet vs. a placebo one. Both groups reported subjective improvement in most areas, but there was little to no difference between the two groups. This study lead to a 2003 injunction by the FTC. This injunction ordered the company, QT Inc, to stop production and marketing of their product. In 2006 a federal judge ordered Qt. Inc. to pay back $22.5 million dollars to its customers. This decision was later upheld in a Seventh Circuit court. So what are they trying to sell it as now? A golf bracelet. They say a lot of pros wear it and even if it doesn’t help, it will make your swing look pretty. I guess if you have a hundred bucks to blow and like the way they look go for it. In the end this is just a defeated man’s last attempt to sell a warehouse full of bracelets.

All right folks, thats all I have tonight. If you happen to be flying take a look at Sky Mall, they have some completely ridiculous stuff that I didn’t cover today. One of my favorites is an “indoor restroom” for your dog.

We’re dead, we’re all DEAD! Thursday, September 11, 2008

Posted by ThomDG in Uncategorized.
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Oh my Flying Spaghetti Monster the end is here! As I type, the world is being engulfed by a massive black hole located somewhere in France or Switzerland. Wait- what’s that? Oh, we’re fine.  Really? Nothing, not even an explosion or two. Well, okay.

As I’m sure many of you have heard today (still today here), at 10:28 AM (4:28 AM EST) they shot the first beam through the 27 kilometer long Large Hadron Collider. And it worked perfectly, no black holes or anything of the sort. Although actual collisions aren’t planned until late October (21st) this is till really exciting. The LHC has been in the works since 1995 when it was approved for construction. I can’t imagine they excitement the people must be feeling over in Geneva. In terms of the possibilities for scientific discovery this right up there with the Moon Landing. One of the main goals of the LHC is to discover the Higgs Boson. The Higgs Boson is a hypothetical particle predicted to explain how mass is given to otherwise massless particles. The LHC overall though is an unparalleled opportunity to see what the universe was like moments after the Big Bang.

For further reading and up-to-date reports on the experiments going on I highly recommend the CERN website. They include numerous links to the different experiment stations and press releases dating back to 1993 if you want to get really geeky.

Ayurveda, Toxic Herbal Products & You Friday, August 29, 2008

Posted by Ashley in Alternative Medicine, Homeopathy, Skepticism.
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Along similar lines to Thom’s homeopathy posts, I found a very interesting article concerned with another type of alternative medicine called Ayurveda. Ayurveda originated in India and uses a lot of herbal remedies as therapies for various aliments. For more detailed information on Ayurveda, you can read all about it from an article on the NIH’s alternative medicine page here (Let me point out here, that while I have not explored this facet of the NIH’s website thoroughly, I am concerned that they have an entire URL devoted to alternative medicine, with their nih.gov attached to it).

This article from US News talked about a recent study done by Boston University School of Medicine. They bought random Ayurvedic herbal medicines from various online companies in the US and India and tested them for their metal content, specifically lead, mercury, and arsenic. As it turns out, 1 out of 5 items tested positive for “significant” levels of one or more of the metals. You can access part of the study, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association here.

To this I say, alternative medicine users beware! There’s a reason they’re not well tested and regulated treatments. It’s because they’re not based on science. This is why alternative medicines can get away without having to meet the same rigorous standards as mainstream medicines. Right there you should see a potential danger. If these medicines aren’t regulated by a reputable organization, you very well could be giving yourself metal poisoning. Who knows what else you could be putting into your body?

It’s findings like these that give me a little more faith in our medical testing process. Sure, it’s slow and often frustrating for scienctists, but it does a pretty good job of keeping us safe. So long as we maintain a good system of checks in the process, I feel it’s safe to say I know exactly what I’m getting when I pick up that cold medicine from the pharmacy, and it’s not lead poisoning.

Homeopathy: A review Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Posted by ThomDG in Alternative Medicine, Homeopathy, Skepticism.
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As promised, I’m writing my in depth post on homeopathy. In my previous post, I mentioned that homeopathy was founded by Samuel Hahnemann in 1807. Homeopathy works off of three basic ideas. First, like cures like. Second, less is more. As I dramatically demonstrated in my previous post, homeopathic remedies range from 1¹º dilution at the weakest to 14ºº at the strongest. Anything “stronger” than 30c dilutions has been scientifically proven to contain no molecule of the original substance. To most of you this train of thought probably makes no sense, but never fear! Homeopathy has the answer, and it is called the third principle of homeopathy: water, when shaken, retains memories of what was in it.

Let’s take a look at each of the principles of homeopathy and see why they don’t work. First, we have the Law of Similars or what’s commonly called ‘like cures like’. Hahnemann thought of homeopathy in the late 18th century, a time when trepanning, or drilling a whole into the skull to release spirits, was still a popular medical treatment. Even though this was the age of reason, we still knew very little in the field of medical science. If we think about the Law of Similars with basic logic, we can see that it doesn’t make any sense. If you have a peanut allergy don’t eat peanuts. But, by the logic of like cures like, if you want to get someone to stop smoking crack, give them some crack, but only a little bit.

Now Hahnemann couldn’t publish a paper stating that like cure like, and nothing else. So he began diluting his substances a lot. At most, an average homeopathic remedy contains as much of the original substance as a grain of sand in all the words deserts. Even at the time he published his paper on homeopathy, it was know in chemistry that there was a limit to how much something could be diluted and still have some of the substance remain. Still. Hahnemann theorized that the less of the active ingredient there was, the more powerful it became. This became known as the Law of Infinitesimals. Once again this defies basic logic. If you go into your doctor and complain that the medication you’re taking isn’t helping, chances are he won’t prescribe a lower dosage to help it work better.

The third and final principle is just as ridiculous as the last two. It states that the substance leaves an imprint in the water which stimulates the body to cure itself. Claims have been made about this ranging from spiritual effects to effects on the molecular level. As most of us know, if its spiritual it isn’t based on science. It therefore cannot be tested and should be treated with caution. As for effects on the molecular level, there has yet to be a well controlled study looking into these effects.

Homeopathy is one of the most researched alternative medicines. SInce its inception people have been skeptical of its validity. One recent and very damning article was by the journal The Lancet. In a 2005 Meta-Analysis of 110 studies, they declared that effects from homeopathic remedies were as effective as the placebo effect. A response to this the UK Society of homeopaths said, “It has been established beyond doubt that the randomized controlled trial is not a fitting trial of homeopathy”. This should raise serious red flags for anyone looking into this form of alternative medicine. When somebody says that their cure shouldn’t be subject to the same testing as all other medications, we should be wary.

Bigfoot Hoax Furthers Skeptical Pains Thursday, August 21, 2008

Posted by Ashley in Bigfoot, Media, Skepticism.
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By now, you’ve probably heard a little something about the most recent Bigfoot hoax. If not, you can read about it here, but basically, two men in California claimed to have a Bigfoot carcass on ice and were going to use DNA to prove their claim. While the men say they were making a joke, the claim gained national attention, and then the hoax was revealed.

The national attention caused a media frenzy across the country. Bigfoot hunters everywhere became ecstatic over the news, and eventually the general public started getting sucked into the excitement. I’m ashamed to admit that my mother was one of these people who heard the news report and believed it without hesitation. She fell right into their argument from authority. As soon as the words “scientist” and “DNA” came up in the news report, she fell for it hook, line, and sinker.

Even with all the skeptical tools at my disposal, there was nothing I could say to convince her that there was no reason to think it was anything other than complete bullshit. Now that it’s been proven a hoax, she doesn’t even want to discuss the topic. I have no way of knowing how many other people also believed it, but I’m sure it’s a shocking number.

Falling into these logical fallacies has to stop. And that’s where people like us come in. Stories like this drive us to continue skeptical exploration and help further the skeptical movement. I can only hope that we’re doing some good. If we can get just one person to think even a little skeptically, then we’ve done something right.

The Burden of a Skeptiholic Monday, August 18, 2008

Posted by ThomDG in Skepticism.
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As skeptics we all have a heavy burden to bear. It is our duty to examine claims, debunk claims, and educate the public. The latter duty is the heaviest burden of all. We are constantly fighting an uphill battle. We have to fight against religious programming, psuedoscience, and limitless amounts of misinformation. We do not have the luxury of being able to make claims and have people take them at face value. We are constantly bound by the strict laws of the Scientific Method.

One of the most notable problems we face is a method of “debate” as eloquent as a drunkard’s ramblings, the Gish Gallop. The Gish Gallop is named after Duane Gish, a creationist who would bombard his opponents with false claims. The reason this works is because his opponent doesn’t have the time to debunk each claim. This is, for me, the most frustrating part of being a skeptic. It is nearly impossible to definitively debunk even a single claim that may come up in conversation.

The best way we can ease our burden is to educate the public. Improve science education in schools, encourage critical thinking, and never stop our fight. It is our duty to bear this burden, heavy though it may be. We must fight this fight, no matter how hard or vain it may seem.

Refreshing Camp Encourages Skepticism Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Posted by Ashley in Academia, Religion, Skepticism.
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I just read the most interesting and heartening article I’ve come across in a long time. It comes to me thanks to NPR. You can read it for yourself here, but I’ll give to the gist of it. Essentially, there is a camp in upstate New York, called Camp Inquiry, run by the Center for Inquiry, which encourages its campers to think skeptically. Obviously, one of the things they turn a skeptical eye to is religion, but it is not the camp’s main focus. The camp is designed just as any other camp, with hiking, swimming, and campfires, but they teach their campers skeptical thinking.

I cannot stress enough how amazing an idea this is. This camp is the sort of thing I wish I had when I was younger. I grew up surrounded by people who believed in some sort of god, and followed his teachings without question. It was confusing and frightening. I didn’t understand why I wasn’t a part of the same club my peers were, but scared that they listened to what a book said, no matter how ridiculous I found some of the things to be. For the longest time I was convinced I was alone in my belief that you can’t just believe everything you’re told.

I am delighted that this camp exists, and a little jealous. These kids will know they’re not alone in their thinking. Reading this article really touched home with me. I grew up hiding my beliefs from everyone, and a lot of these campers are going through the same things I did. I’ve only just come out of the skeptical closet, because I only just realized I was in there. It puts a smile on my face to see this camp helping kids deal with these issues. Being one of the religious minorities in America is hard, especially as a child.

Best of all, this camp is teaching these kids critical thinking skills. These skills are invaluable in college, and the real world, too, but are hard to come by, especially for those who get a public school education (where teaching for testing is king). It’s terribly difficult to be skeptical without critical thinking skills. I think it is just fantastic that this camp is teaching this to children. It gives them a leg-up in school and encourages them to think for themselves. How can it get any better than that?

The Anti-Christ is Here Saturday, August 9, 2008

Posted by ThomDG in Religion.
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And according to this article its the DMV. Apparently enough people in West Virginia are worried that digital pictures are a “mark of the beast”. First of all this is just ridiculous. We are not talking about a small town, we are talking about the ENTIRE STATE of West Virginia.

The core issue however is does this qualify as a violation of Separation of Church and State or is it protecting peoples right to practice their religion. This is a question we face all to often in the skeptical movement. It is a question we face right now with the FLDS. Does religious freedom include the right to molest and trade children. I think the answer there is pretty clear, but what about people who just don’t want pictures on their licenses because they fear it is the “mark of the beast”. This doesn’t harm anybody directly, but what if West Virginia decided to stop producing licenses with pictures on them at all. It isn’t a big leap. It might not seem like a big deal, but not having a picture license can really be an inconvenience. Imagine a parent who wouldn’t allow their child to get a picture license, they wouldn’t even be able to go see an R-rated movie or anything else an 18 year old could do. In the end this shouldn’t be a big deal, but that doesn’t mean we should treat it as such.